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Timeless and Time-Tested Warren Buffett Watch Predictions

Timeless and Time-Tested Warren Buffett Watch Predictions

Posted By: Alex Crippen

Gerald Herbert / AP

As a new year approaches, it is customary for journalists to make predictions about the future. This time around, CNBC.com has a collection of prognostications from CNBC bloggers on a special page: Predictions '09.

Last year around this time, Warren Buffett Watch offered its Eight Predictions for '08 .. and Beyond.

In keeping with Buffett's long-term way of looking at things, the eight predictions were intentionally on the 'timeless' side of the predicting spectrum.

Here they are again, with a little bit of editing. This could be the start of a new holiday tradition!

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Warren Buffett became one of the wealthiest people in the world by making predictions and putting money behind those predictions. Every time he buys a stock or a business or some other investment, he's forecasting the future.

Judging by the incredible returns of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett and his colleagues are very good at making those predictions.

Of course, it helps when you can give your predictions plenty of time to come true. That's one reason Buffett's favorite holding period for investments in "outstanding businesses with outstanding managements" is "forever." After all, "We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely."

With that in mind, here are Warren Buffett Watch's 'timeless' predictions.

1. Recessions can't be avoided forever. As 2007 was coming to a close, Buffett told our Becky Quick that if unemployment picks up significantly, the "dominoes" will fall and the U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2008. He was right, but not alarmed. "It is the nature of capitalism to periodically have recessions. People overshoot." (He told Becky she's young enough to expect to see 6 or 7 or them.)

AP The economic downturn takes its toll at the almost-empty Bayshore Town Center Mall in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

2. We'll survive current and future recessions just as we've survived past problems. As Buffett told us in August, 2007, (and repeated throughout 2008): "We've got a wonderful economy... There's never been anything like that in the history of the world. We live seven times better than the people did a century ago on average... We've had problems all along. If you look at the last century, we had that Great Depression and World War Two, we had the Cold War, we had the atomic bomb, but the country does well."

3. Recessions will create opportunities. "I made by far the best buys I've ever made in my lifetime in 1974. And that was a time of great pessimism and the oil shock and stagflation and all those sort of things. But stocks were cheap." Fast-forward to October, 2008, and Buffett's Why I'm Buying U.S. Stocks Now.

4. All stocks won't be cheap. Like Ted Williams waiting for the right pitch, a successful investor waits for the right stock at the right price, and it doesn't happen every day. "What’s nice about investing is you don’t have to swing at pitches. You can watch pitches come in one inch above or one inch below your navel, and you don’t have to swing. No umpire is going to call you out." You get in trouble, Buffett says, when you listen to the crowd chanting "Swing, batter, swing!"

5. The crowd will make mistakes. Buffett cites this piece of advice from his mentor Benjamin Graham: "You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right—and that’s the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don’t have to worry about anybody else."

6. Investors will mistakenly think falling stock prices are bad. "If they reduce the price of hamburgers at McDonald's today I feel terrific. Now I don't go back and think, gee, I paid a little more yesterday. I think I'm going to be buying them cheaper today. Anything you're going to be buying in the future, you want to have get cheaper."

Walt Disney (1950) Cinderella rushes for the exit as midnight approaches

7. Good times will prompt bad decisions. In his 2000 Letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett compared the crowd that buys big when prices are high to Cinderella at the ball. "They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."

8. There will be more dancing at another wild party followed by another painful hangover. Looking back at the Internet bubble, Buffett is quoted as saying, "The world went mad. What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history."

Buffett's Personal Portfolio 100% in US Stocks

Warren Buffett tried to persuade demoralized investors the U.S. stock market is not falling off a cliff. Not everyone was immediately convinced.

The second-richest American and perhaps the world's most revered investor, says he is buying U.S. stocks for his personal account.

"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett, 78, said in an opinion piece published Friday in The New York Times. "Most certainly, fear is now widespread."

As usual, he did not identify the stocks he is buying.

The piece -- titled "Buy American. I Am" -- called for confidence in U.S. business, something in short supply after the credit crisis spiraled into something resembling a market crash. Buffett has been relatively unscathed by the turmoil.

His buying excludes his stake in his insurance and investment company Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N)(BRKb.N), which is committed to philanthropies and constitutes the bulk of his estimated $50 billion net worth.

He said if equities stay cheap, his non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in U.S. stocks from 100 percent in government bonds.

In better times, such a clarion call from Buffett -- amplified Friday by repeated commentary on CNBC -- might spark a big stock market rally. Yet stocks ended another volatile session lower on Friday, after fresh economic data elevated worries about a potentially deep recession.

Buffett said he is not calling a market bottom. He may have company, including prominent investors such as GMO's Jeremy Grantham and BlackRock Inc's (BLK.N) Bob Doll who are betting equities have fallen below their intrinsic values.

New Interview With Warren Buffett

Addison Wiggin at Agora Financial sat down with Warren Buffett for an interview. He published that interview in his new book, I.O.U.S.A – One Nation. Under Stress. In Debt, which is out this week.

On our national debt problems...

We're transferring small bits of the country – ownership of the country, or IOUs – to the rest of the world. But our national pie is still growing.

We're like a very, very, very, rich family that owns a farm the size of Texas, and we have all this output coming from the farm. Now, because we consume a little more than we produce, we're selling bits of that farm daily, a couple billion worth. Or we're giving a small mortgage on it which we don't even notice, but it builds up over time.

So even though we own a little less of the farm, or we create these IOUs against it, our equity in the farm actually increases somewhat. That's why people will benefit over time. But they won't benefit as much as if they hadn't given the IOUs or sold off little pieces of the farm.

On gold...

Over time, people have dug up gold from the ground in far remote areas and then they've shipped it thousands and thousands of miles. And they've put it in the ground over here and hired guards to stand over it. So the real utility of gold is not that high. It's been something that people turn to, but it has not been a very good investment.

On China and globalization...

In 1790, there were about 4 million people in the U.S. and about 290 million in China. They were just as smart as we were. They had a climate that was about the same as ours. And yet we did enormously well over the next 217 years... as compared to China.

Now, why did we do that? Well, we had a market system, a rule of law, and equality of opportunity... and that system unleashed the potential of citizens in the United States to an extent far greater than in many countries including, up until recently, China.

About the risk of default of U.S. government bonds...

The U.S. government bond is absolutely certain to be paid. It's just total nonsense when people talk about the U.S. going bankrupt. I mean, the U.S. government will always pay its debts. The purchasing power of the dollar you receive is likely to be less than the dollar you invested, so you have purchasing power risk... But you should not be afraid of government bonds in terms of being paid.

The unique situation in the U.S. now...

Many years ago, when we lent a lot of money to various emerging countries and were having trouble getting paid back, somebody said that they found it very hard to imagine some Philippine or Thailand worker spending a couple of extra hours every week in the hot sun merely so Citicorp could increase its dividend twice a year. At a point, people say, "To hell with it."

It's much easier just to inflate your way out of it. If you're a South American or Asian country that owes money in dollars, it gets very binding to pay back in dollars. But if you owe it in your own currency, you just print more currency. And we have the ability to print currency. We can denominate debt in our own currency, whereas many countries can't because people don't trust them.

On government economic policies and crises...

We came fairly close to the whole system imploding in the 1930s because of economic conditions. People became very responsive to communism... When people are scared about economics, they'll listen to whoever is the most persuasive... One thing I don't like about the consequences of sustained large trade deficits is I think it makes the potential for demagoguery and really foolish policies more likely over time.

When you think about the history of this country, our economic policies have been pretty darn good. I mean, any country that delivers a seven-for-one increase in per capita living in a century has done an awful lot of things right. It's never happened before in the history of mankind.

What the right policies are...

You want a system where Mike Tyson is fighting for the heavyweight championship and Jack Welch is running General Electric. But you don't want Mike Tyson to be running General Electric and Jack Welch in the heavyweight championship. Government allocation of resources has tended, too often, to misallocate, and I think a market system does a pretty good job of allocating.

Wrapping up...

It's been a marvelous time to be alive. It wasn't really a whole lot better to live in the fourth century BC than the fourth century AD. But it's been a lot better to live in the year 2007 than it was in the year 1807.

...Even those on the low end are doing far better than people on the high end were doing 100 years ago. There're many, many things that a person earning a normal wage in this country can do and enjoy that John D. Rockefeller couldn't do and enjoy. So a rising tide has lifted all the boats... The average American is going to live better 10 years from now, 20 years from now, and 50 years from now.

History of Warren Buffet

In 1947, a seventeen year old Warren Buffett graduated from High School. It was never his intention to go to college; he had already made $5,000 delivering newspapers (this is equal to $42,610.81 in 2000). His father had other plans, and urged his son to attend the Wharton Business School at the University of Pennsylvania. Buffett stayed two years, complaining that he knew more than his professors. When Howard was defeated in the 1948 Congressional race, Warren returned home to Omaha and transferred to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Working full-time, he managed to graduate in only three years.

Warren Buffett approached graduate studies with the same resistance he displayed a few years earlier. He was finally persuaded to apply to Harvard Business School, which, in the worst admission decision in history, rejected him as "too young". Slighted, Warren applied to Columbia where famed investors Ben Graham and David Dodd taught - an experience that would forever change his life.

If Buffett's lifestyle seems out of step, so is his investment strategy. At a time when day traders bid up stocks based on nothing but rumor and momentum, when bond investors place pricey and complex bets on such arcane financial instruments as interest-rate futures, it's hard not to think of Buffett as a kind of museum piece. His approach is simple, even quaint. Ignoring both macroeconomic trends and Wall Street fashions, he looks for undervalued companies with low overhead costs, high growth potential, strong market share and low price-to-earning ratios, and then waits for the rest of the world to catch up.

As often as not, Buffett's business instincts become conventional wisdom. Consider Coca-Cola Co. In 1988, when Buffett started buying the global soft-drink giant, it was a Wall Street wallflower, trading at $10.96. But Buffett saw two things that were not reflected in the balance sheet: the world's strongest brand name and untapped sales potential overseas. As Coca-Cola's earnings grew, so did investor interest. In less than five years, the stock soared to $74.50. Buffett's current stake is valued at some $13 billion.

Americans tend to revile their billionaires as much as they respect them (just look at Gates or Michael Eisner). But somehow, Buffett has managed to emerge as a kind of American folk hero. His famously literate dispatches in Berkshire Hathaway's annual reports -- in which he is as likely to quote the Bible and John Maynard Keynes as Yogi Berra and Mae West -- are read as much for their gee-whiz Midwestern wit as they are for their business insights. Berkshire's Web site is a modest affair, with a few links to some Berkshire-owned businesses and a message from Buffett, a self-described "technophobe," asking for suggestions how the site might be improved. Dozens of books and hundreds of Web sites dissect his investment decisions. And then there are Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meetings in Omaha, which Buffett's biographer Ron Lowenstein compares to "an Elvis concert or a religious revival," and which Buffett himself calls "Woodstock for Capitalists." Investors have been known to purchase a single Berkshire share just for the opportunity to pick the master's brain each spring.

A $650,000 Lunch With Warren Buffett

What would you pay to have lunch with the richest man in the world? For me and Mohnish Pabrai — a friend who, like me, runs a U.S.-based investment fund — the answer is $650,100. That's how much we forked out for the privilege of dining with Warren Buffett on June 25.



It was worth every dime. Buffett is the most successful investor in history, yet he has reached that pinnacle while also being supremely ethical. As remarkable for his philanthropy as for his stock-picking, he's giving the bulk of his billions to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; likewise, the fee for our lunch would go to the Glide Foundation, which helps the poor and homeless. Lunch with Buffett, we figured, would be a good way to give to charity, but it would also be the ultimate capitalist master class — a chance to see up close what makes the Sage of Omaha tick and to learn from his wisdom.

And so it was that my wife and I sat down for lunch with Buffett in a cozy, wood-paneled alcove of the Manhattan steakhouse Smith & Wollensky. Mohnish brought along his wife and two daughters, who sat on either side of Buffett. When the menus arrived, Buffett, now 77 years old, joked with the girls that he doesn't eat anything he wouldn't touch when he was less than 5. His order: a medium-rare steak with hash browns and a cherry coke — a fitting choice, given that his company, Berkshire Hathaway, is Coca-Cola's largest shareholder.

Characteristically, Buffett had done his homework: he'd found out in advance, for example, that my wife was born in Salisbury, North Carolina. But after a minimum of small talk to put us at ease, it was down to more serious matters. When I mentioned how difficult I'd recently found it to do the right thing by lowering the fees I charged my fund's shareholders, Buffett nodded sympathetically and observed, "People will always try to stop you doing the right thing if it is unconventional." When I asked if it would get any easier, he replied with a wry smile: "Just a little."

Buffett has made a point of doing business with integrity — and of working only with people who share his values. As we learned, he credits his father with teaching him early on to rely on his own sense of what's right, rather than looking for affirmation from others. "It's very important to live your life by an internal yardstick," he told us, noting that one way to gauge whether or not you do so is to ask the following question: "Would you rather be considered the best lover in the world and know privately that you're the worst — or would you prefer to know privately that you're the best lover in the world, but be considered the worst?"

When it comes to investing, nothing is more important than the ability to think rationally for oneself — and Buffett is unsurpassed on this front. In the late '90s, he was criticized for his refusal to invest in booming tech and Internet stocks — a decision that was vindicated when the bubble burst. Buffett has made a fine art of keeping this kind of distracting noise at bay: he said he even limits his contact with managers of businesses in which he invests, preferring to assess their companies' financial records — a more neutral source of information. Equally vital to his success, Buffett said he focuses only on investments that lie well within his "circle of competence." As a result, he confided, whenever he makes an investment, he has no doubt at all that he's right.

For most people, attaining the intellectual clarity and emotional detachment that investing requires is tough. But Buffett, for all his affability, is shrewd about disengaging himself to avoid any unnecessary distractions that might impair his judgment. People often try to convince him to meet with them so they can pitch investments to him, he said, but he sees through their many ruses — not least their flattery — and is comfortable saying no far more often than he says yes.

One thing Buffett wasn't about to say no to was dessert. He delighted in sampling an array of them, telling the waiter: "Just bring a couple of spoons, and I'll have a little of everyone's." His zest for life is clearly undiminished — indeed, in Berkshire's latest annual report, he wrote that he and his octogenarian partner Charlie Munger "tap-dance to work."

What better role model could you ask for than this? And how do you put a price on the opportunity to spend nearly three hours in his company? Well, two days after our meal, the auction closed on eBay for next year's lunch with Buffett. The winner, a Chinese money manager named Zhao Danyang, bid $2.1 million. So, that proves it: our $650,100 lunch was a total bargain.

Guy Spier is CEO of Aquamarine Capital Management

Buffett Concerned About Inflation

Warren Buffett is in Toronto as part of his world tour, trying to look for companies to buy.

What makes people want to sell their companies to Berkshire Hathaway?

The Berkshire Hathaway Inc. CEO replies that he tells a prospective seller to think of the company as a work of art.

You can sell it to Berkshire, and we'll put it in the Metropolitan Museum; it'll have a wing all by itself; it'll be there forever, or you can sell it to some porn shop operator, and he'll take the painting and he'll make the boobs a little bigger and he'll stick it up in the window, and some other guy will come along in a raincoat, and he'll buy it.

Buffett, 77, can afford to throw a little mud on his competitors in the private-equity industry. Wall Street's acquisition machine has seized up, while Buffett, in the valedictory chapter of a much-envied career stretching back more than 60 years, is on a buying spree.

He has $35.6 billion in cash to spend, and he's looking for companies that he can buy at a reasonable price, that have experienced managers he trusts and that sell products with strong market positions or other competitive advantages.

That he is doing so in one of the worst economies in memory makes his wheeling and dealing all the more amazing. But that has been Buffett's style, although he took time last week to express his concerns about the country's financial well-being.

He has been saying for months that he thinks the U.S. economy is in a recession, and now he says inflation should be a worry.

Buffett told CNBC in a live interview that all the data he sees from Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries, which include home furnisher RC Willey and Rocky Mountain Power in Utah, shows the economy weakening.

Everything connected with construction and with consumer, I see weakness, and if anything, it's accentuating a little bit.

Buffett also said he thinks inflation is picking up, especially in steel and oil.

His concerns aside, Buffett is poised to make more strategic acquisitions. His biggest catch so far in 2008 was Marmon Holdings Inc., a conglomerate owned by Chicago's Pritzker family. In March, Berkshire bought a 60 percent stake for $4.5 billion.

In April, he agreed to pay $2.1 billion for an undisclosed stake in Chicago's Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co. as part of Mars Inc.'s $23 billion purchase of the gum maker. Buffett, who already owns See's Candies, is helping to fund the deal with $4.4 billion in subordinated debt.

"This is the kind of market where you would expect the pace of Berkshire acquisitions to pick up," says Keith Trauner, senior analyst of Fairholme Capital Management LLC in Short Hills, N. J. "In a weaker business environment, sellers moderate their expectations."

The Sage of Omaha, by his own count, owns 76 companies outright, a number that rises to about 200 if Marmon's 125 subsidiaries, which make everything from water treatment gear to brake drums, are taken into account.

Among the Buffett companies are names familiar to most Americans - Geico car insurance, Dairy Queen restaurants, Benjamin Moore paints and Fruit of the Loom underwear.

Berkshire also owns 8.6 percent of Coca-Cola Co., 13.1 percent of American Express Co., 36 percent of Anheuser-Busch and 8.8 percent of Wells Fargo & Co. Those three investments alone amount to nearly $25 billion.

Buffett's investment choices have yielded a conglomerate that's profitable in all kinds of weather. Through May, Berkshire's Class A stock, which traded last week in the range of $122,700 a share, has returned an average of 19.3 percent annualized
in the past 20 years, nearly double the 11.2 percent return of the S&P 500 Index. From June 2007 through last week, Berkshire stock rose 12.1 percent, while the S&P 500 returned a negative 10.8 percent.

As of Feb. 29, Buffett owned 28.1 percent of the combined value of Berkshire's Class A and B shares, worth $53.44 billion.

Still, Berkshire's growth is slowing. The annual median increase in per share book value, or net worth, averaged 10.3 percent in the eight years ended on Dec. 31, 2007, compared with 26.1 percent in the 1990s and 28.8 percent in the '80s

"Anyone who thinks we will come close to repeating our past performance should sell their stock," Buffett told investors at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting in May, attended by 31,000 investors. Not many are likely to take that advice.